Comments on: Is there a seed bubble? http://www.philmichaelson.com/fundraising/is-there-a-seed-bubble/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-there-a-seed-bubble Thoughts on building a content management service in the (too much) information age Sun, 11 Dec 2011 04:59:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Phil http://www.philmichaelson.com/fundraising/is-there-a-seed-bubble/#comment-1302 Phil Tue, 28 Sep 2010 22:45:30 +0000 http://www.philmichaelson.com/?p=32#comment-1302 ZiyaGB: I was estimating an average return across all funds of 12%--some will be much higher & many will be lower. ZiyaGB: I was estimating an average return across all funds of 12%–some will be much higher & many will be lower.

]]> By: ZiyaGB http://www.philmichaelson.com/fundraising/is-there-a-seed-bubble/#comment-1294 ZiyaGB Fri, 24 Sep 2010 20:02:15 +0000 http://www.philmichaelson.com/?p=32#comment-1294 I like your math, however your assumption that all 25 make what they planned (12%) is not going to hold true for all 25. I think you need to add another factor, say only 10% or so will make 12% and the rest will not (pick a low number for them if you want). If you make this alteration, the amount of annual exists will come down to something lower... However, overall I tend to agree with your point, that not all funds (angel or vc) will come out making acceptable returns without hitting a few home-runs. I like your math, however your assumption that all 25 make what they planned (12%) is not going to hold true for all 25. I think you need to add another factor, say only 10% or so will make 12% and the rest will not (pick a low number for them if you want). If you make this alteration, the amount of annual exists will come down to something lower… However, overall I tend to agree with your point, that not all funds (angel or vc) will come out making acceptable returns without hitting a few home-runs.

]]> By: Phil http://www.philmichaelson.com/fundraising/is-there-a-seed-bubble/#comment-1201 Phil Mon, 28 Jun 2010 15:35:58 +0000 http://www.philmichaelson.com/?p=32#comment-1201 Rob - Good point. I don't how exactly to define the super seed funds Kedrosky is talking about. Should it include First Round Capital? the part of Seqoia that partnered with Paul Graham? the part of Firstmark/Pequot that does seed deals? older groups like Common Angels? My first guess was that $500M is seeding companies (25 funds & $20M). Perhaps its many more funds and less $M per fund. Rob – Good point. I don’t how exactly to define the super seed funds Kedrosky is talking about. Should it include First Round Capital? the part of Seqoia that partnered with Paul Graham? the part of Firstmark/Pequot that does seed deals? older groups like Common Angels?

My first guess was that $500M is seeding companies (25 funds & $20M). Perhaps its many more funds and less $M per fund.

]]> By: Rob Go http://www.philmichaelson.com/fundraising/is-there-a-seed-bubble/#comment-1200 Rob Go Mon, 28 Jun 2010 13:49:22 +0000 http://www.philmichaelson.com/?p=32#comment-1200 Interesting analysis. I think your number of seed funds and aum for the sector is over-stated. At least half of the funds are not really seed funds. They are arms of traditional VC's that I think don't fit into the category. I would say that as a rule too, returns are concentrated into the best funds. So I think the question isn't really one of raw numbers as much as how many high-quality funds are out there. By my estimation, there are really less than 5. Interesting analysis. I think your number of seed funds and aum for the sector is over-stated. At least half of the funds are not really seed funds. They are arms of traditional VC’s that I think don’t fit into the category. I would say that as a rule too, returns are concentrated into the best funds. So I think the question isn’t really one of raw numbers as much as how many high-quality funds are out there. By my estimation, there are really less than 5.

]]>